2014 Draft Preview- Offense

Johnny Manziel is one of the most controversial draft prospects in the last couple of years

It’s that time of year again! With the NFL Draft now less than two weeks away, it is time to release my complete list of top fives for each position for 2014. Just like last year, included in each positional ranking will be a sleeper candidate as well as a potential bust to go along with a write up for certain positions. And as always, it should be noted that these are my personal rankings, and do not reflect what I think NFL GM’s will do in the draft. Enjoy!

Quarterback

David Fales may not be a household name yet, but has some upside as a mid round pick in May

1)    Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M
2)    Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville
3)    Blake Bortles, Central Florida
4)    Derek Carr, Fresno State
5)    David Fales, San Jose State

Summary: I like this crop of quarterbacks much more than the group drafted in 2013. Leading the charge is Johnny Football, a man that you probably either love or hate as a prospect. I think that if you look at what he is rather than what people in the media make him out to be, you will find a leader who plays the game with poise, exactly what you want at the QB position. Match this with his incredible knack for making plays and to me you’re looking at the best quarterback in the draft. Bridgewater has gotten absolutely blasted by both media pundits and anonymous GM’s, but in reality he’s one of the safer QB prospects in recent memory. Think a more athletic Andy Dalton with a slightly better arm. Bortles and Carr possess tremendous upside, but will require a lot of coaching in the pros. It may be considered hyperbole to rank Fales fifth in this class, but after watching him play, I think he possesses all of the qualities you look for in a quarterback from the neck up, and that has a lot of value to me.

Sleeper: South Carolina’s Connor Shaw is not usually a signal caller you hear about in draft discussions, but I think he deserves some more chatter. Metrics guys probably favor him more than film study guys due to his six foot frame, but he is third amongst draft eligible QBs in adjusted yards per attempt, threw 24 touchdowns to just one interception this season, and ran a 4.66 official forty time at the combine. Since it will cost relatively little to acquire him (probably a mid to late day 3 pick), it seems worthwhile to roll the dice on a player who could have much more upside than anyone is currently giving him credit for.

Bust: There are a few quarterbacks getting hype that deserve to be here, perhaps none more than Pittsburgh’s Tom Savage. He has an ideal frame (6’4” 228 lbs) to go along with NFL caliber arm strength, but has not shown that he possesses any other NFL attribute. Savage was a career 57% passer between his time at Pitt and Rutgers, was only a starter for two seasons, and is already 24 years old. If a team is truly planning on taking him in the second round this year, they will be sorely mistaken.

Bishop Sankey may be the most complete back in the entire draft

Running Back

1)    Bishop Sankey, Washington
2)    Tre Mason, Auburn
3)    Isaiah Crowell, Alabama State
4)    Andre Williams, Boston College
5)    Jeremy Hill, LSU

Summary: This running back class is not expected to have as many impact runners as the 2013 class did, but I think that a few teams will be pleasantly surprised. Bishop Sankey blew up the combine, being a leader in the broad jump, three cone, and short shuttle. He projects as a three down player. Tre Mason ran great for the BCS runner ups this season and has tremendous power for a 207 pound back. Isaiah Crowell is perhaps the most talented runner in the entire class, and jumps off of every tape I’ve seen of him, so why is he ranked third? After being named SEC Freshman of the Year in 2011, he was kicked off the Georgia Bulldogs after three weapons charges and transferred to Alabama State. He continued to be dynamic as a member of the Hornets, but would not finish runs at times (supposedly saving himself for the NFL). If these presumed character flaws can be overcome, Crowell could be a true workhorse back at the next level. Andre Williams can’t catch the ball to save his life, but after a 2,000 yard college season, he projects as the best two-down banger the class has to offer. I think he has better athleticism than advertised as well after posting a 10’9” broad jump and a 4.56 forty yard dash at 230 pounds at this year’s combine. LSU’s Jeremy Hill is another big back (233 pounds) who could have an NFL impact from day one.

Sleeper: You’d probably be interested in a runner who ran a 4.41 official forty, had 32 bench reps, a 40.5” vertical, an eleven foot broad jump, and 6.83 three cone time right? Meet Georgia Southern’s Jerick McKinnon. He will be making the jump from triple-option quarterback to running back in the NFL, but looks as though he possess NFL quality vision and power. Don’t be surprised to see McKinnon make an impact for an NFL team this season.

Bust: I don’t think that Carlos Hyde is a particularly bad runner, but I consistently see him ranked as the best or second best back in this class. As a result, he will probably be drafted in the second round of May’s draft, perhaps even the late first. I simply cannot accept that price for a player who may not be able to play all three downs, and benefitted greatly from the Urban Meyer system and Braxton Miller at quarterback.

Wide Receiver

1)    Mike Evans, Texas A&M
2)    Sammy Watkins, Clemson
3)    Brandin Cooks, Oregon State
4)    Davante Adams, Fresno State
5)    Jordan Matthews, Vanderbilt

Summary: Wide receiver this year is incredibly deep. I would expect many players from the 2014 class to make an NFL impact at some point in their careers. At 6’5”, 231 pounds, and the owner of a 4.53 official forty time at the combine, Evans leads the pack. He is a pass catcher in the mold of Vincent Jackson, showing an incredible knack to win balls in traffic down the field. Watkins is often heralded as one of the best receiver prospects in recent memory, but I firmly disagree with that statement. At 6’1”, he will struggle to have the NFL impact of Julio Jones, A.J. Green and other monsters we’ve seen go to the next level. That being said, he is incredibly safe and should still produce from day one. Brandin Cooks blazed the forty this year (4.33 official) and projects to be a plus version of DeSean Jackson. Adams and Matthews both had premier level college production, with the former set to be a huge red zone weapon, and the latter a sneaky good receiver between the 20’s.

Sleeper: My sleeper choice in our March breakdown of the position, Cody

Cody Latimer has the ideal combo of size and speed you look for in a NFL receiver

Latimer, has steadily risen up draft boards to the point where he is now considered to be a second or even late first round pick by some. However, he is still ranked outside of the top ten at his position by NFL.com (22), Sports Illustrated (not listed), Walter Football (16), and CBS Sports (13). This seems like a mistake for a player who is 6’2”, 215 pounds, and ran a 4.38 forty at his pro day. Latimer also dominated the competition at Indiana, averaging almost a hundred yards and touchdown per game in the Big Ten.

Bust: LSU’s Odell Beckham Jr. is regarded as a top receiver by many in the draftnik community, and while he did run a 4.43 official forty at the combine, I think it is a huge mistake if a team takes him in the top half of the first round, as is being rumored. Beckham stands at just 5’11” and recorded just three SEC touchdowns in his career. It seems as though he is a player who just beat up on weak competition, and failed to produce against the best. It is more likely that Beckham finds his niche in the NFL as a slot player and returner than top end number one or two receiver.

Tight End

1)    Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Washington
2)    Eric Ebron, North Carolina
3)    Jace Amaro, Texas Tech
4)    Troy Niklas, Notre Dame
5)    C.J. Fiedorowicz, Iowa

Summary: This is a very strong tight end class at the top, but rather weak otherwise. ASJ is a physical freak at 6’5” and 262 pounds. We have not been able to see him in field drills due to a fractured foot, but he is the best two-way tight end in this draft. He shows prowess both as a blocker and a pass catcher, especially in the red zone. Amaro is a skilled pass catcher in a big (6’5” 255 pounds) body. Troy Niklas is the second best combination of blocker and receiver after Jenkins, though he may be primarily the former given his 6’6”, 270 pound body. Fiedorowicz is an underwhelming receiver, but should carve out a role as a second tight end in the pros due to his blocking ability.

Sleeper: Colt Lyerla has a checkered history after quitting the Oregon Ducks and being arrested for possession of cocaine within the last calendar year. However, he showed to be explosive (4.61 forty, 39” vertical, 10’8” broad jump) albeit small (6’4” and 242 pounds) at the combine. Couple that with what was probably looking like a first round pedigree before his off the field problems, and Lyerla becomes a player worth rolling the dice on in the late rounds or free agency.

Bust: Eric Ebron is talented and should be an NFL asset, but probably doesn’t deserve to be taken in the top 15 picks in May’s draft. He is not overwhelmingly large (6’4”, 250 pounds) or fast (his 4.6 forty is excellent, but not Vernon Davis-like as has been advertised) and is a pitiful blocker. He will likely man the slot for whatever team drafts him.

Tackle

1)    Greg Robinson, Auburn
2)    Jake Matthews, Texas A&M
3)    Taylor Lewan, Michigan
4)    Zack Martin, Notre Dame
5)    JuWaun James, Tennessee

Sleeper: Joe Bitonio, Nevada

Bust: Cyrus Kouandjio, Alabama

Guard

1)    David Yankey, Stanford
2)    Xavier Su’a-Filo, UCLA
3)    Anthony Steen, Alabama
4)    Gabe Jackson, Mississippi State
5)    Trai Turner, LSU

Sleeper: Clemson’s Brandon Thomas was my third ranked guard before tearing his ACL in a private workout. This will essentially make his rookie year a “redshirt” year in the NFL, but it also will push down his draft stock by at least a round, making him a value over the long haul.

Bust: Cyril Richardson, Baylor

Center

1)    Travis Swanson, Arkansas
2)    Weston Richburg, Colorado State
3)    Tyler Larson, Utah State
4)    Marcus Martin, USC
5)    Gabe Ikard, Oklahoma

Sleeper: Russell Bodine, North Carolina

Bust: Bryan Stork, Florida State

-Anthony Amico (follow on twitter @jamsportz & @amicsta)